Verdict: Bearish or Sideways.

Plan of action:
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 48400 PE & 48850 CE (Hedge it with 15/- premium options)
Case 2: Bearish: Sell 48400 CE (Hedge it with 15/- CE option)

As we discussed, the Banknifty bearish structure market gave a very nice momentum to the downside.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading at 200 EMA(30 min TF), which can provide potential support. Also, bank nifty is trading between fib 0.50 and 0.61, which might also be a good support zone. The price is trading lower than EMA(13,50) and above EMA(200). this zone is perfect for taking support for Banknifty.

If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.63 shows a bearish signal in the market. There is good writing on both sides at 48400 and 48500. 48000 has good PE writing, so it is going to provide a good support zone. on the upper side, 49000 is going to be a hard resistance zone because of heavy CE writing.

I am expecting
Case 1: Sideways in range 48400-48853.
Case 2: if the market breaks 48400 to the downside- Bearish
With a good volatility market in upcoming sessions because VIX is 24.2.

Reason:

  1. RSI < 40 shows a weak bull structure. (Bearish)
  2. EMA(13) > Price >= EMA(200), which indicates indecisive or rather sideways market. The market might receive support at 200 EMA.
  3. The market has given a good volume spike that shows this level is good support.
  4. PCR = 0.63 indicates bearish.
  5. price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market.

 

Verdict: Bearish or Sideways.

Plan of action:
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 48400 PE & 48850 CE (Hedge it with 15/- premium options)
Case 2: Bearish: Sell 48400 CE (Hedge it with 15/- CE option)

Disclaimer:

The information provided in this blog post is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not a licensed financial advisor or professional.

Trading and investing in financial markets carry inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their research, consider their risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.

The author is not responsible for any financial losses or gains that may result from actions taken based on the information presented in this blog post. All trading and investment decisions are made at the reader’s own discretion and risk.

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